Weather Outlook
Statewide Weather Outlook from FDEM Meteorology
Tuesday, September 8, 2026
...Scattered Showers and Storms Across the Peninsula Today... Locally Heavy Rainfall and Gusty Winds May Accompany the Strongest Storms... Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked for South-Central and South Florida... Localized Rainfall Totals Upwards of 2-4" Possible... Drier Conditions Expected Across the Panhandle and Big Bend... Unseasonably High Heat Expected With Highs in the 90s and Feels-like Temps in the Upper 90s to Middle 100s... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Many East Coast & Panhandle Beaches... Surf Increases to 3-5' for Northeast FL Beaches... No Tropical Cyclone Development Expected in the Next 7 Days in the Atlantic...
Updated at 7:55 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Interior Peninsula Central & South FL Big Bend & Northeast FL |
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Iso. Statewide |
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Statewide
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South-Central & South FL
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Locally Suwannee Valley
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Northeast FL East-Central FL & Panhandle West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Abundant tropical moisture will remain pooled across much of the Peninsula today, focused by a stalled frontal boundary, where scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected along the inland advancing sea breezes (45-70% chance of rain). Northeasterly flow on the north side of the front will focus activity across the Suwannee Valley and Nature Coast across Northeast Florida, with southwesterly flow south of the front focusing activity across interior portions of Central and South Florida. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across much of the Peninsula south of the I-4 corridor where locally heavy rainfall is possible within the heaviest thunderstorm activity, which could lead to instances of flooding and ponding of water in urban and poor drainage locations. Rainfall totals will generally amount to 0.5-1” in most areas, however locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” cannot be ruled out. Drier air will begin to filter into the Panhandle and Big Bend today with an isolated shower possible (15-30% chance of rain).
Highs will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state, with feels-like temperatures peaking in the upper 90s to middle 100s.
Tonight, showers and storms will generally linger into the evening before dissipating or pushing offshore before midnight (15-30% chance of rain). Easterly flow may keep a few coastal showers around across Northeast and East-Central Florida overnight. Cannot rule out areas of patchy fog developing across the Suwannee Valley towards daybreak Wednesday. Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents is outlooked for Northeast Florida beaches today where breezy onshore winds and elevated surf are expected. A moderate risk for rip currents continues for all Panhandle and East-Central Florida beaches today. A low risk remains outlooked West Coast and Southeast Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: The first “nor’easter” like conditions of the season have developed across portions of Northeast Florida with an offshore swell and onshore winds bringing surf of 3-5’. Waves near 1-3’ are expected for the remainder of Peninsula beaches. Panhandle beaches will see surf increase to 2-4’ today and tonight.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations from Franklin County (valid 9/4/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no coastal flooding concerns across the state.
Fire Weather: The overall wildfire threat will remain low today given relative humidities staying well above critical thresholds and winds remaining light. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity is expected throughout North Florida today. Any thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 9 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,285 acres.
Drought (9/1/26): A wet and unsettled week brought some welcomed rainfall and noticeable drought improvements throughout the state. Across South Florida, all areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in interior Miami-Dade and Broward counties have been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) following a general 2-4 inches of rain this past week. Areas of severe drought (level 2 of 4) across interior St. Lucie, Martin, Manatee, Sarasota, DeSoto, and Charlotte counties has diminished to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) as well on this week’s update. Some additional improvements were observed in Central Florida with parts of northwestern Hillsborough and northern Pinellas counties previously under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) now under a severe drought (level 2 of 4). Coastal portions of Pasco and Hernando counties, as well as interior portions of Orange, Lake, and Marion counties, have returned to moderate drought (level 1 of 4) conditions. Other significant drought improvements were observed in Northeast Florida with much of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) area in the Suwannee Valley going away and returning to a severe drought (level 2 of 4). The overall footprint of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) has shrunk with much more moderate drought (level 1 of 4) returning. Some drought degradation was observed in the Panhandle with new areas of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) in northern Escambia, Santa Rosa, and small portions of northeastern Holmes and northwestern Jackson counties. In this update, only a small portion of the Suwannee Valley and portions of West-Central Florida remain under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4), making up ~3.5% of the state. Areas of moderate to severe drought (level 1-2 of 4) are still found throughout much of the Peninsula. About ~9% of the state remains under no drought designation. Looking ahead, wet and unsettled weather is expected to continue throughout much of the state with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, likely bringing some drought improvements in next week’s update in areas that receive above normal rainfall.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 228 (-13) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 0 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked throughout much of South-Central and South Florida today where abundant tropical moisture will continue to promote the development of scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms, some of which may be slow-moving and contain torrential downpours. Rainfall totals will generally amount to 0.5-1” in areas that do receive thunderstorm activity, though locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” cannot be ruled out. For more information, visit the Weather Prediction Center.
Riverine Flooding: The Fisheating Creek at Palmdale is expected to remain in Action Stage (bank-full) into early next week. There are no other riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.03 feet, which is 3.36 feet below normal for this time of year and in the water shortage management band.
