Current Weather Outlook

Hurricane Melissa: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is located about 215 miles northeast of the Central Bahamas and moving north-northeastward at 21 mph. An accelerated northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts, making Melissa a Category 2 hurricane. Slight strengthening is possible today before weakening likely begins on Friday. Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rip Currents: Breezy northwesterly winds and large ocean swells in the wake of yesterdays frontal passage will bring a high risk for rip currents for all Panhandle and West Coast beaches today. Large ocean swells associated with offshore Hurricane Melissa will also bring a high risk for rip currents to all East Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Ocean swells will remain elevated across the Gulf waters as post-frontal winds remain breezy in the wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday. Wave heights of 4-6’ will continue for most West Coast and Panhandle beaches, with a few waves upwards of 7’ possible along coastal Gulf County where a High Surf Advisory remains in effect. Large ocean swells from distant Hurricane Melissa will also bring elevated surf of 4-6’ for East Coast beaches.

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Sarasota County in Southwest Florida. It was also observed at medium to high concentrations from Gulf County in Northwest Florida. Red tide was not observed along the Florida East Coast (10/24).

Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect along tidal portions of the St. Johns River where water levels have risen to 1-1.5’ above normally dry ground near and during times of high tide leading to instances of minor tidal and coastal flooding. Some areas may approach 2’ above normally dry ground as the next full moon (11/5) approaches. These conditions can be anticipated to continue through the week ahead of the next full moon cycle. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued along the Florida Keys for minor tidal flooding.

Fire Weather: In the wake of the frontal passage yesterday, dry and breezy winds will overspread the Sunshine state today. Breezy winds with gusts of 15-25 mph are expected across the state, with a few gusts upwards of 30 mph. However, despite the dry conditions statewide, relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds (45-55% RH values). As such, overall wildfire conditions will remain very low across the state. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 15 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 68 acres.  

Drought (10/30): Widespread rainfall was unfortunately not found across the state in the past week or so, though some beneficial rainfall did occur in parts of the state. However, this rainfall generally fell in areas that were already saturated and above normal in rainfall for the month. Across South Florida, abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions were expanded further inland across Collier, Hendry, Glades, and Highlands counties and remains in place for the rest of the Florida West Coast. Monthly rainfall departures remain 2-3” below normal for much of West Central Florida and drought conditions are likely to slowly worsen heading into November. A different story is found along the Florida East Coast where persistent onshore winds for much of the month of October have brought above normal rainfall for the month. As such, drought conditions remain in check along the I-95 corridor. Further north, 30-day rainfall departures also remain 2-4” below normal across the I-10 corridor which has resulted in persistence of the worsening drought conditions. Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of the Panhandle where a lack of rainfall and very low soil moisture prevails. The frontal passages over the past week were unable to bring enough heavy rainfall to make any real dent in the dry conditions. In fact, some expansion south and eastward of the Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) into Hamilton, Liberty, Calhoun, Washington, and Bay counties was added on this week’s drought monitor outlook. No significant changes were made elsewhere across the Panhandle with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) conditions persisting for interior Northeast Florida and the Suwannee Valley.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 385 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 28 Florida counties (Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Columbia, DeSoto, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Hardee, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Suwannee, Union, Wakulla, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.

Riverine Flooding: Following the recent heavy rainfall on Sunday, water levels for the St. Johns River at Astor have risen back into moderate flood stage. Additional points along the headwaters of the St. Johns River including Deland, Sanford and Lake Harney are all forecast to rise into minor flood stage over the next few days. A River Flood Warning has been issued for the St. Johns River above Lake Harney as water levels are forecast to reach minor flood stage midweek. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.94 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.09 feet below normal for this time of year.