Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, June 13, 2025
...Typical Summertime Pattern Across Sunshine State...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms; Locally Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible...Saharan Dry Air Moving In East-Central and South Florida to Limit Thunderstorm Activity; Isolated to Widely Scattered Still Possible...Torrential Downpours Could Lead to Instances of Flash Flooding Throughout North and Central Florida...Warm and Muggy Conditions...Nature Coast and West-Central Florida to See Feels-Like Temperatures in Triple Digits (100-106) and Approach Heat Advisory Criteria...Lingering Showers and Thunderstorms Near Coastlines Overnight...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Persists for Panhandle and East Coast...No Tropical Cyclone Activity Expected Over Next 7 Days in Atlantic Basin...
Updated at 10:12 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide Space Coast & Southeast FL |
Locally Iso. Statewide |
North & West Florida Iso. Statewide |
Locally Nature Coast & West-Central FL Statewide |
Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Southerly to southeasterly winds are bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms towards the Big Bend and Nature Coasts this morning as the sea breeze gets an early start. Throughout the day, additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across North and West Florida as the sea breeze moves inland and collides (65-75% chance of rain). Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms may also be possible during the peak heating hours of the day, bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours. Tropical moisture will help thunderstorms produce heavy and torrential downpours, especially throughout most of North and West Florida today. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding as multiple rounds of intense downpours could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water, especially for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Saharan Dry Air will move into South Florida, and portions of East-Central Florida, which may limit shower and thunderstorm coverage; however, isolated to widely scattered showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible (30-50% chance of rain).
High temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state. Heat index values, or feels-like temperatures, will also continue to reach the middle 90s to triple digits (100-106-degrees), with the warmest values across Nature Coast and West-Central Florida. These areas could see heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria briefly during the early to mid-afternoon hours.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into the evening hours before the sea breeze moves offshore. As the sea breeze moves offshore and the sun goes down, shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to dissipate and move offshore as well. Some embedded showers and thunderstorms may hover near or along the coast and coastal waters overnight as the sea breeze reverses, but inland areas can expect mostly dry conditions overnight (15-40% chance of rain).
Low temperatures in the 70s can be expected throughout the state and lower 80s for the Keys.
Tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days across the Atlantic basin. For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents persists to the Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches. West Coast beaches will continue to see a low risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Calm marine conditions and seas will remain near 1’ for all Gulf and West Coast beaches. East Coast beaches will see slightly elevated marine conditions with wave heights near 1-3’, except for Atlantic-facing Key beaches which will see wave heights upwards of 4’ this morning and into the afternoon. . Thunderstorms may create rough surf and choppy waters.
Red Tide has not been observed along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/6).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Daily showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the state today with the help of southeasterly winds bringing tropical moisture northward. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds that could ignite or further spread ongoing fires, especially areas over ongoing severe to extreme drought conditions. Saharan Dry Air will move into South Florida today, keeping thunderstorm activity more isolated to scattered, but also bring hazy skies. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 30 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,808 acres.
Drought: Beneficial rainfall across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend over the last few days has led to the removal of the lingering Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions for this week’s update. Widespread rainfall throughout the Peninsula was kept to a minimum, even though some areas received plentiful and beneficial rainfall locally. As a result, minimal chances were made to drought conditions throughout the Peninsula despite increased daily rain chances. Portions of South Florida, mostly along the Southwest Florida coastline and interior portions of Southeast Florida, remain within Extreme Drought (level 4 of 5) conditions. Longer-term rainfall deficits continue to show rainfall totals throughout the Peninsula near 1-3” below normal over the last 60 days. Low streamflow also continues for portions of the Everglades and portions of Lake Okeechobee despite recent rainfall.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 330 (-19) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 2 Florida counties (Dixie and Levy) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across much of North Florida and the West Coast as locally heavy and intense downpours could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water at times. Some of these areas have already seen repeated rounds of rainfall over the last few days, and additional heavy rainfall could lead to an earlier onset of flash flooding. Any slow-moving thunderstorm will also be capable of providing several rounds of torrential downpours over the same area, which could also lead to localized flash flooding concerns. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4” possible.
Riverine Flooding: The Big Coldwater Creek near Milton and Escambia River near Century remain within Action Stage (bank-full) as water levels continue to gradually decline. Additional heavy rainfall over these waterways may slow the rate of water levels while they decline. There are no additional riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.16 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.02 feet below normal for this time of year.
