Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, July 30, 2025
...Technical Difficulties With Updating Contents in Tropics, Marine and Flooding Sections...
...Dangerous Heat and Humidity Across the State...Increased Shower and Thunderstorm Activity for Panhandle...Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Throughout the State Along the Sea Breeze Later in the Day...Heavy Downpours Could Bring Instances of Localized Flash Flooding Along Western Panhandle...Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds and Heavy Downpours Possible Within Thunderstorms...Widespread Triple Digit Heat Index Values (100s to 110s)...Heat Advisories Across North and Central Florida for Dangerous Conditions...Lingering Showers and Thunderstorms Across Panhandle and West Coast Waters Overnight...Mild Low Temperatures May Prolong Daytime Heat and Humidity...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Along North Florida Beaches...No Tropical Cyclone Activity Expected Over Next 7 Days...
Updated at 9:00 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Statewide West-Central & South FL |
Iso. Statewide
|
Western Panhandle; Iso. Statewide |
North & Central Florida Statewide |
Franklin County North Florida Peninsula |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Dangerously hot and humid conditions will develop throughout the day across the Sunshine State as high pressure over the central and eastern U.S. continues to dominate. The upper-level disturbance will linger near the Panhandle, which will help to increase shower and thunderstorm activity over there this afternoon and evening (50-60% chance of rain). The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the western Panhandle for locally heavy downpours and intense rainfall rates that could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water. Across the state, the typical summertime thunderstorm pattern can be expected with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze during the peak heating hours of the day (25-50% chance of rain). Slightly drier air moving into the state will keep thunderstorm activity isolated and limited across portions of the Peninsula. Regardless, any thunderstorm that develops may become locally strong to severe, bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
Heat building throughout the day with plenty of sunshine will give way to high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s across the state. Increased rain chances will keep temperatures a couple degrees “cooler” than the last couple of days, but that doesn’t take away from how hot it will be. Dangerous heat index values in the 100s and 110s can be expected throughout the state again by the early to mid-afternoon hours. Heat Advisories extend across North and Central Florida towards Lake Okeechobee, and will go into effect midday, for heat index values of 108-112-degrees expected throughout the afternoon hours.
Showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and evening hours will continue to slowly wane and dissipate heading into the overnight hours. A few showers and embedded rumbles of thunder may linger along the coastal waters across the Panhandle and West Coast before moving onshore early Thursday morning (20-40% chance of rain). Low temperatures will remain mild in the upper 70s to lower 80s, giving little relief from daytime heat and humidity.
Northwestern Gulf: A weak low-pressure system located 100 miles south of the Louisiana coast continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system will move west towards the Texas coast today and has limited time to develop before it moves over land tonight. Regardless of formation, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of the northwestern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…low…10%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along Emerald Coast and Gold Coast beaches today and a moderate risk of rip currents along most other East Coast and Panhandle beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected statewide with wave heights of 2-3’ for most Panhandle beaches.
Red Tide has been not been observed along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 7/18).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Hot and humid conditions will continue across the state as high pressure over the eastern U.S. continues to dominate, which will continue to dry out soils and vegetation where rainfall has not occurred over the last couple of days. Scattered to locally widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon and evening, and thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Some drier air will filter along eastern Florida, which may keep thunderstorm activity limited later in the daytime hours. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 29 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 682 acres.
Drought: Significant improvements were made over Marion County with the recent active weather pattern that brought plentiful rainfall the past two weeks of 8-14” of rain. A Moderate drought (level 1 of 4) was completely removed within this region near the Ocala National Forest. Otherwise, no changes statewide for the drought outlook. A Severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across Southeast Florida where monthly rainfall deficits remain 2-4” for many locations and an Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists over western Miami-Dade County. Portions of the Nature Coast remain in Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where monthly rainfall totals similarly remain below average the past month. Although not in an official drought category yet, portions of the northern Panhandle may see an upgrade to Moderate Drought if dry conditions persist through the next week.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 318 (+23) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 2 Florida counties (Hamilton and Jackson) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding outlooked across the western Florida Panhandle mainly west of SR 331 where repeated rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are most likely. Locally heavy downpours could produce quick rainfall totals of 1-2”, with isolated amounts of 3-5” possible, which may lead to areas of ponding of water or flash flooding. Otherwise, there is no organized risk for flash flooding across the rest of the state. However, instances of ponding of water is possible in any areas that receive prolonged or repeated rounds of isolated thunderstorms.
Riverine Flooding: The Ocklawaha River at Rodman Dam remains at Minor Flood Stage this morning while the Fisheating Creek at Palmdale remains at Action Stage (bank-full) as well as the upstream gauge near Lakeport at Highway 78. The Sante Fe River at Worthington Springs is forecast to crest into Action Stage this weekend. Although additional riverine responses are not expected, conditions will be heavily dependent upon where any prolonged thunderstorm activity occurs across each basin. Areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy thunderstorms today may experience riverine responses. Additional updates to these forecasts will be likely through the week. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.01 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.68 feet below normal for this time of year.
