Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Continued breezy winds and ocean swells will create a high risk for rip currents along the East Coast and Florida Panhandle today with a low to locally moderate risk along the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.  

Marine Hazards: Breezy onshore winds will continue to produce poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions and large breaking waves near 4-8’ along the Atlantic-facing Keys and near 3-5’ along the Panhandle and East Coast. High Surf Advisories are in effect along the Western Panhandle for large breaking waves of 4-5’ in the surf zone. Waves will remain near 1-3’ elsewhere with locally higher 4’ waves possible.

Red Tide has been observed at background levels in 1 samples collected from Northwest Florida (Gulf County) over the past week (valid 3/29). There have been no reports of respiratory irritation or fish kills suspected to be related to red tide.

Coastal Flooding: While there is no organized risk for coastal flooding, breezy onshore winds and elevated wave heights will create elevated water levels (0.5-1’ above normally dry ground) near and at times of high tide along the Florida Panhandle and West Coast. Localized instances of minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out.

Fire Weather: Areas of patchy to locally dense fog that have developed across North and Central Florida will gradually lift and dissipate through the mid-morning hours. Patchy to dense sea fog will linger along immediate coastlines and over coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle throughout the day. High pressure just east of the Florida Atlantic Coast will continue to promote dry and warm conditions across the Sunshine State today and tonight. Collisions of the East Coast and Gulf Coast sea breezes are expected over inland counties in the Peninsula this afternoon. With these collisions occurring during peak heating hours of the day, a few showers could form; however, high pressure is expected to suppress thunderstorm potential. Breezy southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to reach near 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 15-25 mph today. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds this afternoon; however, locally sensitive wildfire conditions may be possible this afternoon and evening along portions of the Western Peninsula as dry air lowers relative humidity values to near 40-50% and breezy conditions persist over areas with ongoing drought conditions. Areas of patchy to locally dense fog will be possible across North and Central Florida overnight into Friday morning. Fog may further reduced visibility where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 44 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 28,393.20 acres.

Drought: During the past week, light-to-moderate rainfall accumulations were observed across the region, with the heaviest accumulations (ranging from 2-4”) occurring in the Florida Panhandle and southern Florida. In terms of average temperatures for the week, the entire region experienced above-normal temperatures. In response to the rainfall across Florida, areas of Severe Drought and Moderate Drought conditions saw reductions on the map on this week’s Drought Monitor update (valid 4/3). Abnormally Dry (Emerging Drought) conditions have also been removed from portions of East-Central Florida. Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought Conditions remain in place across much of the rest of the Peninsula with pockets of Severe Drought across much of South Florida and north of the I-4 corridor across portions of the Nature Coast. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is outlooking below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across the Peninsula over the next week or so which may allow for improvements in drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 313 (+10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 12 Florida counties (Broward, Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Lee, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach, and Sarasota) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: Flash flooding is not expected today.  

Riverine Flooding: The Aucilla River at Lamont (US-27) and Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates remain in Action Stage (bank-full) as water levels continue to fall following rises from recent heavy rainfall. River flooding is not expected. There are no additional riverine concerns at this time. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.  

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.53 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.74 feet below normal for this time of year.