RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, March 16th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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An active weather day can once again be expected across the Sunshine State as a strong springtime cold front brings a multi-hazardous severe weather threat to much of North and Central Florida.
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While the squall-line became a bit disorganized over the Florida Panhandle earlier this morning, thunderstorm segments were still capable of producing embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts and prompted the issuance of several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings.
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Tornado Watch #65 remains in effect for the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Florida Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley through 2:00 PM ET; additional downstream watches will be issued as conditions warrant.
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Scatteredstrong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of this cold front will advance eastward this morning and will look to regain organization with daytime heating.
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The line of showers and thunderstorms will reach the I-10/I-75 interchange around midday, Northeast Florida early this afternoon, and the I-4 corridor by the evening commute.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains aSlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weatheracross North and Central Florida, as well as the Treasure Coast, as organized thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), isolated embedded tornadoes, lightning, and instances of large hail (1” in diameter).
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While the frontal boundary will lose organization south of Lake Okeechobee, the combination of ample daytime heating and the daily sea breeze will promote aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5)for isolatedstrong to locally severe thunderstormsthis afternoon and evening.
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There is no organized risk of flash flooding; however, any heavier rainfall rates may lead to pockets ofponding water and floodingalong portions of coastal and metro Southeast Florida.
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Outside of thunderstorm activity, breezy to windy conditions will develop through much of North and Central Florida withwind gustsreaching upwards of25-35 mphthroughout portions of North and Central Florida.
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In the wake of this potent frontal system, northerly winds will quickly usher in a colder and drier airmass to Florida, withwintertime temperaturesmaking their return. Low temperatures tonight will dropat or below freezingfor interior North Florida locations, with temperaturesfeeling likethemiddle to upper 20sby Tuesday morning.
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There is amoderate tohigh risk of rip currentsalong all Florida beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, March 15th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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An active weather day can be expected across the Sunshine State as we are monitoring the evolution of a strong frontal system moving across the eastern United States.
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Rain and thunderstorms chances increase across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula (60-90% chance of rain); a few of these thunderstorms may bestrong to locally severe.
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Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely to increase the risk ofponding water and flooding throughout Southeast Florida low-lying/flood-prone urban corridors.
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While thunderstorm activity will gradually subside from south to north across the Florida Peninsula afternoon, attention quickly turns to a likely squall-line containingstrong to severe thunderstormsadvancing eastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
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Computer forecast models indicate that the squall-line will likely arrive to the western Florida Panhandle early Monday morning, progress along the I-10 corridor during the pre-dawn hours, reaching the Florida Big Bend by the Monday morning commute.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking aSlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstormsalong the Florida Panhandle for straight-line winds (45-65 mph) existing within any organized segments of thunderstorm activity and isolated tornadoes that develop along the line’s leading edge.
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One trend to closely monitor tonight will be a greater tornado potential within any clusters of thunderstorms that developahead of the primary line of thunderstorms; the SPC has placed a localizedEnhanced Risk (level 3 of 5)for Florida counties adjacent to the southeastern Alabama border where ingredients may be more supportive for tornadic activity.
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Please be sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts tonight into Monday morning!
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There is amoderate risk of rip currents for all Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches;high riskconditions reside along the Southeast Florida coastline.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, March 14, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Areas of patchy dense fog have developed across interior South and Northeast Florida this morning and will be slow to lift and dissipate with sunrise.
- Otherwise, another mostly sunny and dry day will prevail across North Florida where low relative humidities (35-40%) will continue to promote sensitive wildfire conditions.
- Across Central and South Florida, a stalled frontal boundary will allow plenty of moisture to pool across the Peninsula for scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly along and south of the I-4 corridor (50-65% chance of rain).
- Although there is no organized risk for severe weather or flash flooding, some of these slow-moving thunderstorms could become locally strong to severeand produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.
- Rainfall totals will generally remain below 1", though localized totals upwards of 4" cannot be ruled out in areas that see repeated rounds of slow-moving heavy downpours.
- Winds will remain generally light today outside of thunderstorm activity, however a few breezy gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible along the I-95 corridor.
- High temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 80s throughout interior portions of the state today with coastal locations remaining in the 70s.
- The frontal boundary draped across the Peninsula will slowly drift northward tonight, allowing for moisture and some isolated showers and thunderstorms to lift northward into Northeast Florida (15-25% chance of rain).
- Coastal showers will linger throughout the night across Southeast Florida and the Keys (40-55% chance of rain).
- Low-level moisture and calm winds will promote additional development of fog and low clouds tonight, mainly throughout the interior Peninsula, some of which could become locally dense.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida and middle to upper 60s throughout Central and South Florida. The Southeast Florida metro region and Keys will remain in the 70s.
- A high risk for rip currents remains for most East Coast beaches today; a moderate risk for rip currents is expected for most Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, March 13, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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The cold front associated with yesterday’s frontal passage has stalled and begun to dissipate across South Florida, evident as a few lingering showers this morning.
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Tropical moisture will pool along and south of this front today with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon, mainly south of Lake Okeechobee (45-60% chance of rain); isolated activity will extend northward to the I-4 corridor (15-40% chance of rain).
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A few of these storms could belocally strong to severe and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.
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A fewlocally heavy downpourscan also not be ruled out, capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rain.
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North of the I-4 corridor, a mostly sunny and dry day is expected.
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Relative humidities will remain low today across North Florida (35-40%), with sensitive wildfire conditions expected given the ongoing drought.
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A few breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph are expected across the Peninsula this afternoon.
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High temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 70s across the Panhandle today, with upper 70s to middle 80s elsewhere statewide.
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Onshore winds may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler along the East Coast.
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Tonight, activity across South Florida will linger and may start to drift northward into Central Florida after midnight (25-40% chance of rain).
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A mostly dry night is expected elsewhere, though low-level moisture and calm winds may promotelow clouds and fog across Northeast and interior South Florida.
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Lows will fall into the middle 40s and 50s in the Panhandle and Big Bend, with 60s and lower 70s throughout the Peninsula and Keys.
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Ahigh risk for rip currentsis expected along the East Coast today with surf of4-6'. Amoderate riskremains for most Panhandle beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, March 12, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A line ofstrong to severe thunderstormsis ongoing this morning across portions of the eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley with a few of these storms capable of producing damaging winds (50-60 mph), a brief tornado or two, and locally heavy downpours.
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weatheris outlooked across the Big Bend and portions of Northeast Florida as this line of activity makes its way eastward through the morning hours (85 – near 100% chance of rain) with gradual weakening.
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The line will begin to approach Central Florida later this afternoon and evening with widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms (45-75% chance of rain).
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In the wake of the front, breezy post-frontal conditions will develop with wind gustsupwards of 30 mphspreading throughout all North and Central Florida, with locally higher gustsupwards of 35 mphacross the Panhandle.
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Drier air will also filter into the Panhandle in the wake of the front, with lower relative humidities (35-40%) encouragingsensitive wildfire conditions, though the overnight rainfall will keep the wildfire risk lower.
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Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower to middle 60s across the Panhandle this afternoon and upper 60s to lower 70s across the Big Bend.
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Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected for Northeast Florida with middle to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula.
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Feels-like temperatures may reach thelower 90sthroughout portions of the interior Peninsula.
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Tonight, a few lingering showers are expected across Central and South Florida as the front begins to stall and dissipate (25-55% chance of rain), with the greatest coverage of activity over the East-Central Peninsula.
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Winds will begin to subside statewide through the evening, though breezy winds with gustsupwards of 25 mph will still linger along the I-95 corridor.
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Low temperatures will cool off into the lower to middle 40s across the Panhandle and Big Bend tonight, with upper 40s to lower 50s throughout Northeast Florida.
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Temperatures may feel like theupper 30sacross portions of the Panhandle north of the I-10 corridor near sunrise Friday.
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Lows in the 60s to lower 70s can be expected along and south of the I-4 corridor.
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Ahigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle beaches today; amoderate risk remains for all East Coast beaches
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Surf will increase to2-4' for all Panhandle beaches today and through tonight.
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For the East Coast, surf of 2-3' will increase to near6-8'by sunrise Friday. AHigh Surf Advisorymay be issued if conditions warrant.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
