RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 30th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
Good morning,
- In the wake of yesterday’s cold frontal passage, dry and cool air will spread across the state today with mostly sunny skies on tap.
- Breezy post-frontal winds are expected statewide today, with wind gusts of 15-25 mphacross the state and a few gusts upwards of 30 mphalong coastal areas.
- Onshore winds may allow a few isolated showers across West-Central Florida today, though any activity will be light and brief (15-20% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will be much cooler today, quite a few degrees below normal for this time of year, in the wake of the frontal passage yesterday.
- Highs will reach the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, low to middle 70s for Central Florida, and middle to upper 70s for South Florida.
- Low temperatures will dip into the lower to middle 40s for North Florida, with a few locations possibly getting into the upper 30s.
- Some patchy fog may develop in the fog-prone areas of the Suwannee Valley by daybreak.
- Upper 40s to lower 50s are expected across Central Florida and upper 50s to middle 60s for South Florida.
- The Florida Keys will remain the warmest overnight with lows only reaching the lower 70s.
- Breezy winds and large ocean swells in the wake of yesterday's cold front, and offshore Hurricane Melissa, will bring a high risk for rip currents nearly statewide.
- Large ocean swells will continue to bring elevated surf to all Florida beaches today, with wave heights of 3-5' statewide. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Gulf County where some waves may reach upwards of 6'.
- Coastal Flood Advisoriesfor tidal portions of the St. Johns River where water levels have risen to 1-1.5’ above normally dry ground leading to instances of minor tidal and coastal flooding.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Hurricane Melissa is located about 215 miles northeast of the Central Bahamas and moving north-northeastward at 21 mph. An accelerated northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today before weakening likely begins on Friday. Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 29th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Some patchy fog this morning along portions of Northeast and Central Florida should gradually lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours.
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Another cold front will approach the Panhandle this morning then sweep through North Florida during the daytime hours.
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This front will have just enough moisture ahead of it to create scattered showers as it moves eastward throughout the day, with the best chance for activity along the Panhandle and western Big Bend (25-65% chance of rain).
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Behind this front, breezy conditions will develop with winds reaching upwards of 15-20 mph and gusts reaching 20-30 mph.
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Stronger wind gusts closer towards the Panhandle coast will reach upwards of 35-40 mph, and a Wind Advisory will go into effect along Gulf County this afternoon.
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The front from earlier in the week continues to linger along the southern Peninsula and near the Keys which will help create isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms near the Southeast Florida coast (20-40% chance of rain).
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High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to middle 70s across North Florida, upper 70s to lower 80s across Central Florida and middle 80s across South Florida.
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As the front moves through Northeast Florida and Central Florida tonight it will still have enough moisture to produce some isolated to widely scattered showers along its immediate boundary heading into the late evening and overnight (15-25% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will dip into the middle to upper 40s across North Florida, 50s to lower 60s across Central Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
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Breezy winds and large ocean swells associated with a strong cold front moving through the state will bring a high risk for rip currents nearly statewide.
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Large ocean swells associated with a passing cold front and breezy post-frontal winds will create wave heights of 5-8’ along the Panhandle this afternoon and evening, and a High Surf Advisory has been issued for coastal Gulf County.
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Coastal Flood Advisories for tidal portions of the St. Johns River where water levels have risen to 1-1.5’ above normally dry ground leading to instances of minor tidal and coastal flooding.
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Hurricane Melissa: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is located about 45 miles northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba and is moving north-northeastward at 14 mph. A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move offshore of eastern Cuba this morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later today, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it moves across the Bahamas later today and passes near Bermuda on Thursday night. Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida; however, this system continues to be closely monitored
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A weakening cold front will continue to push through South Florida today keeping shower and embedded thunderstorm activity limited to the region this afternoon and evening (20-30% chance of rain).
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While there is no organized risk for severe weather,locally stronger thunderstorms will be possible and may bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
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Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be anticipated, withlocally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible closer towards the Southeast Florida coast.
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Behind the cold front, drier conditions return throughout the rest of the state in the wake of a more active period.
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Moisture on the backside of the frontal system could bring a few spotty sprinkles or showers this afternoon throughout the Panhandle (less than 10% chance of rain).
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Breezy windgusts upwards of 20-25 mph may develop throughout the day along the Northeast Florida coast as the frontal system.
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High temperatures will reach the lower 70s across North Florida, upper 70s to lower 80s across Central Florida and middle to upper 80s across South Florida.
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Another cold front is forecast to approach the western Panhandle near sunrise Wednesday morning bringing scattered showers (30-40% chance of rain). An embedded rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.
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Instances ofpatchy to scattered fog may be possible early Wednesday morning throughout the Suwannee Valley and into Central Florida.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 50s across North Florida, lower 60s across Central Florida and lower to middle 70s across South Florida.
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Breezier winds and ocean swells producingwave heights of 5-7' along the Northeast Florida coast will create ahigh risk for rip currents.
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The rest of the East Coast and the Panhandle will see amoderate risk for rip currents return.
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Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued along the tidal St. Johns River forminor tidal flooding ahead of the next full moon cycle early next week.
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The St. Johns River at Astor has risen back intomoderate flood stage following the recent heavy rainfall on Sunday. Additional forecast points along the headwaters of the St. Johns River are forecast to rise intominor flood stage over the next several days.
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From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
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Major Hurricane Mellissa is located about 5 miles south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica and is moving north-northeastward at 7 mph. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next several hours, move across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph with higher gusts making Melissa a dangerous category 5 hurricane. Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.Melissa poses no threat to Florida but continues to be monitored.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, October 27, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Another active weather day can be expected across Florida, with a frontal system promoting widespread rain chances nearly statewide (55-80% chance of rain).
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A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is currently moving through the Capital City region with the more conducive environment for strong to severe thunderstorms residing along the US-98 and Forgotten Coast this morning.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a small Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather and several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued this morning; locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado or two possible.
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While the severe thunderstorm risk is not extended eastward, a few thunderstorms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours along the Florida Big Bend this afternoon.
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Elsewhere across the state, ample moisture will once again support the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms; greatest coverage of activity expected along the I-95 corridor (60-80% chance of rain).
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East-Central Florida received excessive rainfall over the past 24 hours; while a few strong thunderstorms will be possible, additional heavy rainfall and instances of flooding are the primary concerns.
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Thunderstorm activity will tend to train in nature, or move over the same areas for an extended period of time; already saturated soils and remnant rainfall runoff will lead to a quicker onset to any flash flooding.
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The Flood Watch has been extended to 8:00 PM EDT this evening for East-Central Florida as heavy showers and thunderstorms may produce rainfall totals upwards of 4-6” through the afternoon and evening hours.
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There is a high risk of rip currents along the Florida East Coast, with a moderate to high risk for Florida Panhandle beaches.
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As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is a powerful Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Melissa is currently about 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving westward at 3 mph.
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A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing through at least Thursday.
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On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
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Some additional strengthening is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday.
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Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida; however, this system continues to be closely monitored.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, October 26, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A frontal system remains situated to the west over the Ark-La-Tex region and is gradually moving westward into the Southeast U.S bringing a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms that remains just on the doorsteps of the western Panhandle.
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This first round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move into the Panhandle though the afternoon hours before somewhat dissolving once it reaches the US-321 corridor (30-65% chance of rain).
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Behind this first wave of activity, is a second round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a stronger cold front that will move into the Panhandle later this evening and more so overnight, bringing the better chance for rain (50-90% chance of rain).
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Panhandle through tonight as embedded strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible more likely within the second round of activity.
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Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph), an isolated tornado or two, instances of large hail and heavy downpours.
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The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is also outlooking a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle where locally heavy downpours could bring instances of flash flooding and ponding of water.
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Rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5" possible during repeated downpours.
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An upper-level feature off the Florida East Coast will continue to bring breezy conditions across the Peninsula today, especially along the eastern half of the state.
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Breezy wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph will develop throughout the day, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25 mph closer towards the eastern coastline late this afternoon.
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Breezy onshore winds will help to bring moisture across the Peninsula ahead of a warm front draped across the central regions, increasing the chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms (25-45% chance of rain).
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As a cold front approaches from the west this evening and overnight, lingering moisture and the upper-level feature off the eastern coastline will allow for additional rounds of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue mainly along the I-95 corridor (30-55% chance of rain).
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High temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida,
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Portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida will continue to see heat index values in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon.
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Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida and 70s throughout the Peninsula.
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A high risk for rip currents continues for nearly all beaches along the Panhandle and East Coast due to dangerous surf of 4-8' and breezy onshore winds.
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High Surf Advisories are in effect along the western Panhandle, as well as from the Space Coast through Southeast Florida beaches.
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The St. Johns River at Astor remains within minor flood stage as water levels continue to very slowly decline.
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Major Hurricane Melissa: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is located about 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica or about 280 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba and moving westward at 5 mph. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast of Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts making Melissa a category 4 hurricane. Further rapid intensification is expected through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Today. Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida; however, the distant system will likely bring hazardous beach and surf conditions along portions of the East Coast through early to middle portions of next week.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
