RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 15th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The typical summertime thunderstorm pattern will continue throughout the state as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop with daytime heating and the daily sea breeze (55-80% chance of rain).
- Onshore winds are already bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms onshore along the Panhandle and Gulf Coast, and these will continue to become more widespread with daytime heating.
- The Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze boundaries will move inland and collide with one another keeping the greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage along the western Peninsula.
- Saharan Dry Air will linger along East-Central and Southeast Florida today limiting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity; however, isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible.
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the peak heating hours of the day - lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours will be possible within.
- Instances of nuisance and localized flooding will also be possible with torrential downpours or slow-moving thunderstorms.
- High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s throughout the state, with heat index values reaching the upper 90s to triple digits (100-104-degrees) this afternoon.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will generally move offshore and dissipate late this evening, but a few showers or embedded thunderstorms may linger near the Gulf Coast overnight (30-55% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the 70s across the state and lower 80s across the Keys.
- A moderate risk for rip currents will persist along Gulf and Atlantic Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, June 14th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the Sunshine State, courtesy of our typical summertime pattern.
- Southerly to southeasterly winds are beginning to usher spotty showers along Florida’s coastlines this morning, with an increase in coverage and intensity expected with the sea breeze (55-85% chance of rain).
- A few thunderstorms may become strong to locally severe; frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and very heavy downpours likely.
- Prolonged periods of thunderstorm activity and intense downpours may lead to instances of flooding and ponding water.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible along the Florida East Coast as the sea breeze moves inland (30-50% chance of rain).
- Heat indices reach the middle 90s to triple digits (100-106-degrees), with values briefly reaching Heat Advisory criteria along the Nature Coast and West-Central Florida.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually taper off after sunset, with some activity settling near and along the Florida Gulf coastlines overnight (30-50% chance of rain).
- An elevated risk of rip currents continues for Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
- There is no tropical development expected across the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, June 13th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Morning showers and embedded thunderstorms have already begun to move onshore along the Big Bend and Nature Coast as the sea breeze gets an early start.
- The typical summertime pattern can be expected with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing nearly statewide throughout the day (65-75% chance of rain).
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the peak heating hours of day bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding throughout most of North and West Florida for torrential downpours leading to localized flash flood concerns.
- Saharan Dry Air will move into the Space Coast and portions of South Florida limiting widespread thunderstorm coverage; however, an embedded thunderstorm or two will be possible.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected across the state.
- Heat index values, or feel-like temperatures will reach the middle 90s to triple digits (100-106-degrees) by the early afternoon hours.
- Portions of Nature Coast and West-Central Florida could see feels-like temperatures near Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the state during the evening hours before transitioning offshore or dissipating with the lack of daytime heating and the sea breeze pushing offshore.
- A few coastal showers or embedded thunderstorms may continue overnight or re-develop early Saturday morning.
- Low temperatures will fall into the 70s overnight throughout the state and lower 80s for the Keys.
- A moderate risk for rip currents persists for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, June 12th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Southeasterly winds will continue to pull moisture northward allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day (60-90% chance of rain).
- Daytime heating and the daily sea breeze moving inland will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop, some of which may become locally strong to severe.
- Any thunderstorm may be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding; however, slow-moving thunderstorms or repeated rounds of torrential downpours could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Saharan Dry Air approaching South Florida may limit thunderstorm activity and keep activity more scattered in nature compared to the last few days.
- High temperatures will reach the upper 90s to middle 90s across the state by the afternoon hours.
- Feels-like temperatures will reach the upper 90s totriple digits (100-105-degrees) throughout the state, with the warmest values across the Suwannee Valley and West-Central Florida.
- The sea breeze will fall back towards the coast and shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually dissipate and move back towards the coast.
- A few showers or embedded thunderstorms may linger along the coastal waters and immediate coastlines overnight (25-45% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the 70s and lower 80s overnight.
- A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for numerous Panhandle beaches, as well as all East Coast beaches with persistent onshore flow.
- Both the Big Coldwater Creek near Milton and Escambia River near Century have fall below flood stage and continue to see water levels decline through Action Stage (bank-full).
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 11th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Tropical moisture will bring an increased risk for flash flooding across the Sunshine State as daily showers and thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze (50-90% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding extends across the state as heavy and intense downpours could lead to flash flooding and ponding of water for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3" can be expected throughout the state, with locally higher totals upwards of 4-5" possible for portions of the state.
- A stalled frontal boundary will help to aid scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as moisture builds ahead of it.
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the peak heating hours of the day, and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and intense downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected with the increase in moisture throughout the state.
- High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon.
- Feels-like temperatures will reach the middle to upper 90s to triple digits (100-107-degrees), with the warmest values throughout the Suwannee Valley and Nature Coast.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will linger through the evening hours before dissipating overnight; however, there may be a few lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms for portions of the Big Bend and South Florida (30-45% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the 70s throughout the state and lower 80s in the Florida Keys.
- A moderate risk for rip currents returns along all Panhandle beaches, while the Atlantic Coast will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- The Escambia River near Century is forecast to rise into minor flood stage over the next day or two, and a River Flood Warning has been issued.
- Big Coldwater Creek has already crested within minor flood stage, and continues to see water levels declining.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
