RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, December 16th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another cold start across North Florida this morning but it will be the last morning with sub-freezing temperatures for the next several days.
- High pressure will settle into the southeastern states and weakening allowing for mostly dry conditions statewide (15-20% chance of rain).
- An upper-level feature off the Florida East Coast may allow for some brief sprinkles or a light shower or two near the coast, but rainfall is expected to be light in nature.
- With drier conditions across North Florida, the wildfire risk will increase across North Florida given the longer-term drought conditions that stretch across the region.
- Breezy wind gusts will linger throughout the Peninsula, especially along the coasts, and reach upwards of 15-20 mph.
- Temperatures will gradually warm up to the upper 50s to middle 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
- Dry conditions will continue throughout the overnight hours with possible sprinkles along the eastern coastline (15-20% chance of rain).
- Moisture beginning to recover overnight and return throughout the state may allow for instances of fog development by the early morning hours on Wednesday.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s across North Florida, 50s across Central Florida and upper 50s to upper 60s across South Florida.
- Ocean swells of 4-7' and onshore winds will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the East Coast today.
- Panhandle beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents return.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, December 15, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A cold and breezy start this morning across North Florida courtesy of yesterday's cold front bringing much colder air southward into the state.
- Wind Advisories remain in effect this morning until 9:00 AM EST along the Florida East Coast due to ongoing breezy and gusty winds of 15-20 mph and gusts upwards of 35-40 mph.
- High pressure extending over the state will lead to mostly dry conditions, except along the Space Coast through the Southeast Florida Coast where onshore winds and an upper-level feature may bring isolated showers onshore (15-35% chance of rain).
- Breezy wind gusts will linger throughout the day before gradually subsiding along North Florida.
- Central and South Florida will continue to see elevated wind gusts of 15-25 mph, with stronger wind gusts of 25-35 mph across South Florida where a Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7:00 PM EST.
- High temperatures will struggle to reach 50-degrees across North Florida with coastal areas possibly reaching the lower 50s.
- Central Florida will see high temperatures in the 60s and South Florida will see high temperatures in the 70s.
- Dry conditions will mostly persist into the overnight, but lingering breezy onshore winds may bring isolated showers onshore towards the I-95 corridor (15-20% chance of rain).
- Clear skies will allow for temperatures tonight fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s across North Florida, middle 30s to upper 40s across Central Florida and 50s to middle 60s across South Florida.
- Freeze Warnings will go into effect tonight for portions of the Panhandle and Northeast Florida.
- Calmer winds overnight will keep wind chills (feels-like temperatures) near the actual temperatures overnight and into Tuesday morning; however, frost development is possible throughout North Florida by sunrise.
- A high risk for rip currents extends nearly statewide due to breezy winds and large ocean swells. A moderate risk continues for portions of the Panhandle.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the East Coast due to large ocean swells of 5-9' leading to dangerous beach and boating conditions.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, December 14th 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Patchy fogthis morning will gradually lift and dissipate throughout the morning hours. Isolated showers this morning are ongoing along the Panhandle as a cold front moves through the region this morning.
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This cold front will push through the state today and may bring a few brief sprinkles or light shower or two, but overall conditions are expected to remain dry as the front passes through (20-30% chance of rain).
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Further south, an upper-level disturbance to the south of the Peninsula will continue to bring light to moderate rainfall with a few embedded thunderstorms (20-60% chance of rain).
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Organized flash flooding is not expected; however, any locally heavy rounds of shower or thunderstorm activity could lead to somenuisance ponding of water or localized flash floodingfor urban and low-lying areas of the South Florida metro.
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Rainfall totals of 0.5” are forecast, withlocally higher totals upwards of 2-3” possible.
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Windgusts of 15-20 mphwill develop by the late afternoon hours across North Florida, with stronger windgusts of 25-30 mphcloser towards the coastlines.
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By the overnight hours, windgusts of 15-25 mphcan be expected statewide withstronger wind gusts of 30-40 mphalong the coastlines.
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Wind Advisorieswill go into effect this evening and overnight for much of the First and Space Coasts forwinds of 20-25 mphandwind gusts upwards of 40 mph.
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The warmest part of the day across the Panhandle and western Big Bend will be near midday and the early afternoon hours reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s as the colder air moves in quickly behind the front.
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The rest of North Florida will see high temperatures in the 60s, Central Florida will see high temperatures in the 70s and South Florida will see high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80-degrees.
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Widespread freeze conditionswill be possible across North Florida tonight and into Monday morning as much colder air arrives and breezy conditions continue overnight.
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Low temperaturesacross North Florida will fall into themiddle to upper 20s andlower 30scloser towards the coast.
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Freeze Warningswill go into effect overnight and through the early morning hours on Monday across the Emerald Coast as temperaturesas low as 27-degrees are possible, and along interior Northeast Florida for temperaturesas low as 23-32-degrees.
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Cold Weather Advisories(formerly Wind Chill Advisories) will also go into effect tonight due to cold temperatures and ongoing breezy winds across North Florida.Wind chills or feels-like temperatureswill fall into theteens and 20s by early Monday morning.
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Elevated winds should keep frost formation minimal; however, instances ofpatchy frostin shaded areas cannot be ruled out.
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Low temperatures across Central Florida will fall into theupper 30s to lower 50s and low temperatures across South Florida will fall into the middle 50s to middle 60s.
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Portions of North-Central Florida and the Nature Coast will seefeels-like temperatures in themiddle to upper 30sby sunrise on Monday morning.
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Amoderate to high risk for rip currentscan be expected nearly statewide with breezy northerly to northwesterly winds and increasing ocean swells.
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Overnight ocean swells will peaknear 4-6’ along the Panhandle and Gulf Coast and5-10’along the Florida East Coast.
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High Surf Advisorieswill go into effect tonight along most of the East Coast through Monday evening forlarge swells and dangerous beach conditions.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, December 13, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Areas ofpatchy dense foghave developed this morning across much of the Panhandle and Big Bend, andDense Fog Advisorieswill remain in effect through mid-morning.
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Any area ofpatchy fog should dissipate later this morning as sunny and dry conditions prevail with rainfall chances near zero nearly statewide.
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However, across the Florida Keys and the southern Peninsula, an upper-level disturbance will emerge out of the Gulf and approach later today.
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A few isolated to widely scattered showers may break out late this afternoon, mainly across the Florida Keys (25-35% chance of rain).
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High temperatures today will warm into the lower to middle 70s across North Florida and the middle to upper 70s in Central and South Florida. A few areas across coastal Southeast Florida may reach the lower 80s this afternoon.
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The upper-level disturbance will continue to traverse across the southern Peninsula overnight bringing scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, mainly south of Lake Okeechobee (40-70% chance of rain).
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Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding, a fewlocally heavy downpourscannot be ruled out in anylocally strong thunderstorm activity.
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Rainfall totals will remain generally below 0.5", however localized totalsupwards of 1-1.5" cannot be ruled out.
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Mostly dry conditions will continue across North and Central Florida, however the next potent cold front will begin to approach the western Panhandle by daybreak Sunday morning.
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Although moisture will be limited out ahead of this front, a few isolated showers may develop across the western Panhandle after midnight tonight (25-35% chance of rain).
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Calm conditions will promote another night ofpatchy dense fogdevelopment, especially across the Big Bend, Suwannee Valley, and Central Florida.
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Low temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s for North Florida, middle to upper 50s in Central Florida, and lower to middle 60s in South Florida. Coastal Southeast Florida will see lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for Panhandle, Space Coast, and Treasure Coast beaches today with ahigh risk for rip currentsacross Southeast Florida beaches where surf of2-4' will persist.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, December 12, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Clear skies this morning will give way to another sunny and dry day across the state as surface high pressure remains anchored over the Southeast U.S.
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Chances of rain will remain zero as dry air holds in place, which will help to bring relative humidities tonear critical thresholds (30-35% RH values)this afternoon across Northeast and North-Central Florida.
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Locally sensitive wildfire conditionsmay develop across much of Northeast Florida given the ongoing long-term drought, even with some recent rainfall.
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High temperatures will be seasonable today, reaching the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s in Central Florida, and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
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Clear skies and increasing low-level moisture tonight may lead topatchy dense fogdevelopment across much of the Suwannee Valley and Big Bend region.
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Patchy fogcannot be ruled out across much of North Florida and along the I-4 corridor as well; Dense Fog Advisoriesmay be issued as conditions warrant.
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Low temperatures will be the coolest across the Suwannee Valley overnight where lows into the lower to middle 40s can be expected.
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Lows will dip into the middle 40s to lower 50s across the rest of North Florida overnight.
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In Central Forida, lows will reach the lower to middle 50s and upper 50s to lower 60s in interior South Florida.
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Coastal regions of South Florida will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for Panhandle, Space Coast, and Treasure Coast beaches today with ahigh risk for rip currentsacross Southeast Florida beaches where surf of2-4'will persist.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
