RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for August 2nd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The start to a wet and active next few days will begin today as a weak cold front across Georgia begins to sag south and eventually stall over North Florida.
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are already ongoing this morning over the Big Bend and Nature Coast and will continue to push southeast throughout the day.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate across the I-10 corridor and North Florida later this afternoon (65-90% chance of rain).
- Much of the I-10 corridor north has been outlooked with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather.
- Embedded thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (50-60mph), and heavy downpours.
- A Marginal (level 1 of 4) toSlight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked across the I-10 corridor as well.
- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to an earlier onset of ponding of water or nuisance flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage locations.
- Across Central and South Florida, a more typical summertime thunderstorm pattern is expected with afternoon showers and thunderstorms initiating along the sea breeze over interior portions of the Peninsula (40-60% chance of rain).
- Temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90sacross the state before any shower or thunderstorm activity occurs.
- Heat index values will reach the lower to middle 100s statewide and Heat Advisories have been issued across South Florida where heat index values may reach the upper 100s in some locations.
- Showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and evening hours across South and Central Florida will generally dissipate with loss of daytime heating (15-30% chance of rain).
- The I-10 corridor may see activity continue into the overnight hours with closer proximity to the front (50-60% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 70s statewide.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for August 1st, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure will remain over the state today keeping the dangerously hot and humid conditions in place for at least one more day.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coastlines this morning before pushing inland with the daily sea breeze boundaries.
- The greatest chance for rain will be over interior portions of South Florida where the west and east coast sea breezes will collide (40-60% chance of rain).
- Here, embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- In the far western Panhandle, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked where recent heavy rainfall and saturated soils may lead to an earlier onset of ponding of water or nuisance flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage locations.
- Any storms that do develop across the state will be capable of a quick 1-2” of rain, with locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5”.
- Dangerous heat will build throughout the day with plenty of sunshine giving way to high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across the state.
- Heat index values will reach the middle 100s across the state and Heat Advisories extend across North and Central Florida, and along the east coast, where heat index values of 106-110-degreesare expected throughout the afternoon hours.
- High temperatures may reach the upper 90s across northeastern Florida where afternoon heat index values could reach the lower 110s.
- Showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and evening hours will continue to slowly wane and dissipate heading into the overnight hours.
- A few showers and embedded rumbles of thunder may linger around the interior Peninsula and coastlines before moving offshore overnight (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 70s, giving little relief from daytime heat and humidity.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for July 31st, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure will remain over Florida today once again keeping the dangerous heat and humidity around.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coastlines this morning before pushing inland with the daily sea breeze boundaries.
- A predominate west coast sea breeze will focus these showers and thunderstorms mainly over the central and eastern portions of the Peninsula (30-40% chance of rain) where sea breeze boundaries will collide.
- The western Panhandle will see the greatest chance of rain today (40-60% chance of rain) with a bit more tropical moisture around.
- Slightly drier air overall today will keep the shower and thunderstorm threat more isolated statewide, however any of these thunderstorms that do develop could be locally strong to severe with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- A quick 1-2" of rain could occur in any areas that receive prolonged or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.
- There is a moderate risk for rip currents across Panhandle beaches today.
- High temperatures in the lower to middle 90s can be expected throughout the state, with portions of northeast Florida possibly reaching the upper 90s.
- Heat index values will continue to reach the 100s and 110s throughout the state.
- As a result, Heat Advisories will go into effect once again this afternoon across North and Central Florida where heat index values of 107-112 are expected.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will generally dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, though some lingering showers and thunderstorms may be present over the Peninsula into the evening (15-30% chance of rain) before pushing offshore overnight.
- Mild low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s can be expected overnight, providing little relief from the daytime heat.
- Tropical development is not expected during the next 7 days over the Atlantic basin.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for July 30th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another day of dangerously hot and humid conditions can be expected for the Sunshine State, with a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.
- The lingering upper-level disturbance near the Panhandle will bring the greatest chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (50-60% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the western Panhandle for intense downpours or slow-moving thunderstorms leading to localized flash flooding.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected across the state, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible.
- The typical summertime pattern can be expected across the state as isolated to widely scattered activity will develop along the sea breeze (25-50% chance of rain).
- Embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible during the peak heating hours of the day, bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours locally.
- Heat will build throughout the day leading to high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s in the afternoon.
- Dangerous heat index values in the 100s and 110s across the state this afternoon.
- Heat Advisories will go into effect midday across North and Central Florida for heat index values of 108-112-degrees expected.
- Showers and thunderstorms will largely dissipate late this evening and overnight; however, a few will linger along the Panhandle and West Coasts and adjacent waters before moving inland Thursday morning (20-40% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will bring little relief from daytime heat and humidity and may prolong dangerous heat conditions overnight.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected along North Florida beaches throughout the day.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, July 29th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Dangerously hot and humid conditions will continue across the Sunshine State as high pressure continues to dominate across the central and eastern U.S.
- An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected across the state, especially across North Florida where an upper-level disturbance overhead will enhance activity (30-70% chance of rain).
- Embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening, and will bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle and I-10 corridor where localized flash flooding and ponding of water may be possible within intense downpours and slow-moving thunderstorms.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible.
- Dangerous high temperatures this afternoon before shower and thunderstorm activity will reach the middle to upper 90s across the state, with portions of North and Central Florida possibly reaching 100-degrees.
- Heat index values will continue to reach dangerous conditions in the 100s and 110s throughout the state.
- Extreme Heat Warnings will go into effect around midday throughout Northeast and Central Florida for heat index values of 112-116-degrees expected.
- Heat Advisories have been issued North and Central Florida for heat index values of 108-112-degrees expected.
- The upper-level disturbance may allow for showers and thunderstorms to linger along the Panhandle into the overnight hours, but mostly dry conditions can be expected elsewhere (20-40% chance of rain).
- Mild low temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s can be expected overnight, providing little relief from daytime heat and humidity.
- A moderate risk for rip currents persist for several Panhandle beaches, while a low risk can be expected elsewhere.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
